Two Types of Growth - Scott H Young

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Two Types of Growth
 February, 2013 | Comments | Share
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29/10/2024, 16:42 Two Types of Growth - Scott H Young
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Anything you try to improve will have a growth curve. Imagine you ran everyday and
tracked your speed to �nish a 5-mile course. Smoothing out the noise, over enough t
probably get a graph like this:
Here, improvement works on a logarithmic scale. As you get better, it gets harder an
improve. Elite athletes expend enormous e�ort to shave seconds o� their best times. 
athletes can shave minutes with just a little practice.
Logarithmic growth is the �rst type of growth. This is where you see a lot of progres
beginning, but continuing progress is more di�cult.
Now imagine a di�erent graph. This time you’ve build a new website you update reg
you’re measuring subscribers. This graph would likely look very di�erent:
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https://www.scotthyoung.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/LogarithmicCurve.png
https://www.scotthyoung.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/LogarithmicCurve.png
This is exponential growth, the second type of growth. Website tra�c is often expon
because as a blog attracts more readers, there are more opportunities for word about 
spread. A blog with zero tra�c also has zero word of mouth.
I’ve noticed most things tend to be either logarithmic or exponential growth. Despit
progress is what most people expect. We tend to expect things to move in the same d
rate as they have in the past. This violation of our expectation leads to some mistakes
set goals and act on them.
The Logarithmic Growth Mistake
Listen to this article
ScottHYoung – �Ep 129� � Two types of growth
The �rst kind of mistake is assuming straight-line growth, when reality is actually log
There are many situations which usually �t this pattern:
Athletic performance
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https://www.scotthyoung.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/ExponentialCurve.png
https://www.scotthyoung.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/ExponentialCurve.png
https://soundcloud.com/user-324815295/ep-129-two-types-of-growth
Weight gain/loss
Learning a new language
Productivity
Mastery of a complex skill
Assuming straight-line growth means overcon�dence in long-term progress. As a res
to hit plateaus if the di�culty isn’t deliberately tuned to break your comfortable rhyt
Logarithmic growth also implies it is easier to slide back down the hill. Since it is so s
beginning, carelessness can mean those immediate gains are often easily lost. Losing w
quickly may be more desirable than losing it slowly, but it also risks putting it back o
quickly if you stop your e�orts.
Logarithmic mistakes are common, but so to are mistakes when reality is in the othe
growth curve.
The Exponential Growth Mistake
Once again, people view progress linearly when it is, in fact, exponential. Some exam
usually follow exponential curves for at least part of their lifecycle are:
Technological improvement (e.g. Moore’s Law)
Business growth
Wealth
Rewards to talent/career
Unlike logarithmic curves, almost nothing is consistently exponential. Most are only
exponential over some range of values, outside of which they are logarithmic again.
No business reaches near-in�nite values, even though this would be implied by an ex
curve. Eventually market share is saturated or competition stabilizes growth. Howeve
types of businesses, exponential growth can persist for much of the business lifecycle
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_Law
Exponential curves are somewhat rarer than logarithmic ones, however the mistakes 
even more costly. Expecting linear growth when it is actually exponential causes man
give up way before they should.
Several years ago, I remember being disheartened when drawing straight-line projecti
business income. At the going rates, it was often a dozen years away or more before I
make a full-time living at it. However, my income turned out to be exponential. Desp
spending more time below my ideal projections, I ended up eventually surpassing the
Exponential areas of life are full of quitters. People making linear assessments of viab
giving up before the exponential curve can take hold. Not all of this is irrational, man
exponential areas are high-variance as well. However, the problem with exponential d
that the feedback can often look bad, even when it is good.
Is Your Growth Exponential or Logarithmic?
Both types of mistakes, failing to recognize exponential domains and logarithmic on
costly. It’s not always clear which is which, but by reasoning about the features of a d
can get a better sense which one it is likely to be.
The easiest way to tell is to look at how other people have progressed in that �eld. Do
attention to their rates, just pay attention to the shape of their growth trajectory. Is it
that slows down with mastery or speeds up?
Exponential growth stories tend to be the ones where a person struggled long and ha
little to show for it, then started quickly gaining success. These stories often seem to 
overnight successes, since they ignore the years of obscure toiling.
Logarithmic growth stories involve a continuous dedication to remaining at your pea
speaker of a second language will comment on the regular practice required, not the 
moment where it all “happened”.
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https://www.scotthyoung.com/blog/2012/11/19/pursue-your-dream/
Other features of the environment can tell you whether something is exponential or
logarithmic. Exponential environments often seem to be based on a catch-22 or circu
causality. Having money makes it much easier to make more money, not only becaus
interest rates but because people give rich people opportunities they wouldn’t to tho
success.
Logarithmic domains usually have diminishing returns once the “obvious” solutions
The more you work at them, the harder you have to look for insight to generate new
Occasionally you can discover overlooked opportunities and regain the steep part of 
but this is inherently di�cult.
Growth Mindsets
In logarithmic domains, two mindsets are important. In the beginning, high-growth
emphasis needs to be on maintaining long-term habits. Since growth is fast initially, c
to be taken so that it won’t slide back down once e�ort is removed.
In the later, low-growth phase, the emphasis needs to be on habit breaking. Since low
often caused by calcifying routines, deliberate e�ort needs to be taken to break out o
comfort zone.
In exponential domains, the mindset of resilience and endurance are critical. Since fe
sparse and generally negative during the initial part of the curve, it takes dedication to
Part of the reason, entrepreneurs are often consumed by their own vision is that it he
out the negative feedback until they can reach the exponential part of their growth.
Now it’s your turn. What are you working on right now? Is it more exponential 
logarithmic?What features of your environment do you believe make it that way
your thoughts in the comments.
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