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Bojan Radojicic robojan.gumroad.com Repost THE VALUATION HANDBOOK Financial history without anomalies Amount and trending of net income Selling the product across the globe Industry entry barriers Sales channels diversification Key personnel expertise Sales stability and scalability Level and trending in churn rate Revenue transferability Ability for workforce replacement Overall business sustainability Intellectual property protection level Total addressable market trending Predictability of cash flows Macroeconomic factors Innovative technology use PROCESS Define the prupose Gather info Choose valuation method Perform financial analysis Adjsut financials Determine discount rate Appply mehtodology Consider additional factors Sensitivity analysis VALUATION PURPOSE Selling business Buying business Fundraising Litigations Financial reporting requirements Capital gain tax base calculation Internal decision making Divorce reasons Partnerships restructuring VALUATION SUBJECT Business Project or startup Real Estate Intangible assets Financial instruments Databases Customer relationships Technology Software Brand 3 VALUATION APPROACHES Income approach Market approach Cost approach This approach is based on the idea that the value of a company is directly related to its ability to generate income. This approach assumes that the value of a company is closely related to the prices of comparable companies in the market. This approach is based on the principle that the value of a company is equal to the sum of assets less the sum of its liabilities. 11 VALUATION METODS 1. Net book value method 2. Replacement cost method 3. Reproduction cost method 1. Discounted cash flow method 2. Capitalization of earnings method 3. Excess Earnings Method 4. Relief from royalty method 1. Valuation by multiple method 2. Market price method 3. Comparable companies method 4. Precedent transaction method WACC calculation Amount Risk-free rate 2.0% Equity risk premium 4.72% Unlevered industry Beta 0.81 Gearing (ND / E) 56.4% Relevered industry beta 1.15 Sub-total 7.4% Size premium 0.5% Country risk premium 0.5% Specific risk premium 0.7% Cost of equity 9.1% Cost of debt pre tax 3.58% Cost of debt pre tax 3.6% Corporate tax rate 25.50% Cost of Debt after tax 2.7% Gearing (ND / EV) 36.0% WACC 6.8% WACC=Ke* E/(D+E)+Kd* D/(D+E) Ke – Cost of equity E (Equity) – the market value of equity Kd (Cost of debt after tax) – gross cost of debt minus tax savings D (Debt) – the market value of debt D+E – enterprise value WACC VALUATION DRIVERS 1. Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio 2. Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio 3. Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio 4. Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA Ratio 5. Price-to-Cash Flow (P/CF) Ratio 6. Dividend Yield MULTIPLES PROJECT EVALUATION TERMINAL VALUE 13,286 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 4.52% 35,723 39,653 44,698 51,411 60,784 74,787 97,978 143,810 5.52% 27,809 30,175 33,065 36,672 41,303 47,465 56,068 68,921 6.52% 22,462 23,997 25,810 27,984 30,638 33,951 38,205 43,866 7.52% 18,644 19,693 20,904 22,315 23,981 25,980 28,420 31,466 8.52% 15,805 16,551 17,396 18,362 19,475 20,774 22,307 24,146 9.52% 13,628 14,175 14,786 15,473 16,251 17,140 18,165 19,361 10.52% 11,918 12,328 12,782 13,286 13,849 14,482 15,199 16,018 11.52% 10,547 10,861 11,205 11,584 12,002 12,467 12,986 13,569 12.52% 9,430 9,674 9,940 10,230 10,548 10,897 11,283 11,711 13.52% 8,506 8,699 8,907 9,133 9,379 9,646 9,940 10,262 14.52% 7,732 7,886 8,052 8,231 8,423 8,632 8,859 9,106 15.52% 7,077 7,202 7,335 7,478 7,631 7,796 7,974 8,168 16.52% 6,518 6,619 6,728 6,843 6,966 7,098 7,240 7,393 Long term CF growth rate WACC SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS EVA CFn * (1 + g) (WACC – g) • TV – Undiscounted Terminal Value • CFn – Cash Flow in the last year of projections • g – growth rate • WACC – discount rate • n – number of periods for projections TV = Free cash flow EBIT + Tax + Non-cash items add backs +(-) NWC change - CAPEX Discounted cash flow DCF = (CF/(1+r) ) + (CF/(1+r) ) + (CF/(1+r) ) CF = Cash Flow in the Period r = the interest rate or discount rate n = the period number EVA = NOPAT - (Invested Capital * WACC) NOPAT – net operating profit after tax Discounted Cash Flows 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 EBIT 1,938 1,589 1,655 2,019 2,372 Tax (286) (232) (241) (295) (346) Non-cash items added back 317 549 692 514 527 Net Working capital adjustments (1,193) (169) (215) (240) (272) CAPEX adjustments (750) (1,050) (450) (150) (150) Free Cash Flow 27 687 1,440 1,849 2,131 Discount factor - DF 1.105 1.222 1.350 1.492 1.649 DCF 24 563 1,067 1,239 1,292 DISCOUNTED CASH FLOWS Valuation Cumulated DCF 4,859 Terminal Value 14,507 Discounted Terminal Value 8,796 DCF value of operations 13,656 Non-operating assets adjustments 1,379 Enterprise value 15,035 Financial liabilities (700) Interest bearing debt (700) Debt equivalents (165) Hybrid claims and non controlling interests (225) Equity value 13,945 NPV 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 Terminal Total inflow 300,000 330,000 363,000 399,300 439,230 483,153 531,468 584,615 643,077 2,450,303 Discount factor 1.2070 1.3260 1.4568 1.6005 1.7583 1.9317 2.1222 2.3315 2.5615 2.8141 Present value of total inflow 248,556 248,867 249,179 249,492 249,804 250,118 250,431 250,745 251,059 870,732 Total outflow (407,225) (227,685) (250,191) (274,948) (302,180) (332,135) (365,086) (401,333) (441,203) 0 Discount factor 1.2070 1.3260 1.4568 1.6005 1.7583 1.9317 2.1222 2.3315 2.5615 2.8141 Present value of total outflow (337,394) (171,707) (171,742) (171,793) (171,860) (171,939) (172,031) (172,134) (172,247) 0 Discounting factor DF = (1+ DR) DR – discounted rate n = projection year – starting year